Informatics and Applications
2017, Volume 11, Issue 4, pp 38-46
PATTERN-BASED ANALYSIS OF PROBABILISTIC AND STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION
Abstract
Precipitations are the key parameters of hydrological models; so, research related to precipitation processes is necessary for solving various applied problems. The paper demonstrates a violation of the Markov property for precipitation observed in essentially different climatic regions - in the cities of Potsdam and Elista.
Such information about the data, along with previously studied properties, represents the basic information which is necessary for the further correct construction of probabilistic models, in particular, for probability distribution of the volumes of extreme precipitation. For the analysis of the probabilistic behavior of the precipitation process and the construction of forecasts, it is suggested to use chains of events (patterns) extracted from the data. At the same time, statistical procedures are automated using the software tools of the MATLAB package. Neural networks were used as an alternative forecasting tool based on patterns, and the best results were demonstrated via the architecture that takes into account a seasonality, has two hidden layers of neurons and a sigmoid activation function. The ideas for further research in this field are suggested.
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[+] About this article
Title
PATTERN-BASED ANALYSIS OF PROBABILISTIC AND STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION
Journal
Informatics and Applications
2017, Volume 11, Issue 4, pp 38-46
Cover Date
2017-12-30
DOI
10.14357/19922264170405
Print ISSN
1992-2264
Publisher
Institute of Informatics Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences
Additional Links
Key words
precipitations; patterns; forecast; neural networks; probabilistic forecasting; Markov property
Authors
A. K. Gorshenin  , 
Author Affiliations
Institute of Informatics Problems, Federal Research Center "Computer Science and Control" of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 44-2 Vavilov Str., Moscow 119333, Russian Federation
P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 36 Nakhimovski Prosp., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation
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