Informatics and Applications
2014, Volume 8, Issue 2, pp 111-121
CONSTRUCTION OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELS IN CONDITIONS OF LIMITED EXPERT INFORMATION
Abstract
System dynamics is a methodology for studying of complex dynamic systems focused on conducting
computer simulations. Construction of system dynamicsmodels is largely dependent on the available experimental
information and expert judgments. A simulation experiment with “bad” models can lead to significant or even
total distortion of the system properties. This paper describes a method of constructing the system dynamics
models, which is a set ofmathematical models, based on the idea of the Kantorovich approach to the mathematical
treatment of experimental data, and computational procedures. An important advantage is the possibility of
including in the model significant conditions which are important to researcher and affect model adequacy. The
developed method was tested on the example of the Russian population.
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[+] About this article
Title
CONSTRUCTION OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELS IN CONDITIONS OF LIMITED EXPERT INFORMATION
Journal
Informatics and Applications
2014, Volume 8, Issue 2, pp 111-121
Cover Date
2014-03-31
DOI
10.14357/19922264140211
Print ISSN
1992-2264
Publisher
Institute of Informatics Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences
Additional Links
Key words
system dynamics models; point and interval estimation ofmodel parameters; the Kantorovich approach;
the maximum permissible error of measurement
Authors
O.G. Kantor  , S. I. Spivak 
Author Affiliations
Institute of Social and Economic Researches ofUfa Scientific CentreRAS; 71 Av. Oktyabrya,Ufa 450054,Russian
Federation
Bashkir State University, 32 Validy Str., Ufa 450076, Russian Federation
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